Work out break even win rate instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
Commission is charged on the profit, so the effective odds fall to 1 + (odds - 1) x (1 - commission) and the break-even rate is one divided by that figure. At odds of 1.90 the break-even rate is 52.6% before commission, which is why a 50% strike rate on even-money-looking prices is a slow loss.
Effective odds
net odds = 1 + (decimal odds - 1) x (1 - commission)
Break-even rate
break-even % = 1 / net odds x 100
net odds = 1 + (decimal odds - 1) x (1 - commission). Commission is charged on the profit, so the effective odds fall to 1 + (odds - 1) x (1 - commission) and the break-even rate is one divided by that figure.
At odds of 1.90 the break-even rate is 52.6% before commission, which is why a 50% strike rate on even-money-looking prices is a slow loss.
Enter average decimal odds, commission on winnings. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.