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Break Even Win Rate Calculator

Work out break even win rate instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Break Even Win Rate Calculator

Commission is charged on the profit, so the effective odds fall to 1 + (odds - 1) x (1 - commission) and the break-even rate is one divided by that figure. At odds of 1.90 the break-even rate is 52.6% before commission, which is why a 50% strike rate on even-money-looking prices is a slow loss.

Formulas

Effective odds

net odds = 1 + (decimal odds - 1) x (1 - commission)

Break-even rate

break-even % = 1 / net odds x 100

Worked example

With the default values below, Break Even Win Rate Calculator returns Win rate needed to break even of 53.135%. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Average decimal oddsminimum 1
1.9
Commission on winningsaccepts 0–20 %
2 %

Results

Win rate needed to break even
53.135%
Implied probability before commission
52.632%
Extra win rate the commission costs
0.503%
Effective odds after commission
1.8820

Step by step

  1. 1Values used
  2. 2Effective odds
  3. 3Break-even rate
  4. 4Win rate needed to break even= 53.135
  5. 5Implied probability before commission= 52.632
  6. 6Extra win rate the commission costs= 0.503
  7. 7Effective odds after commission= 1.8820

Assumptions and limits

  • The result is derived only from the 2 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
  • In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax or compounding frequency into account.
  • Figures are rounded for display to 4 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the Break Even Win Rate figure worked out?

net odds = 1 + (decimal odds - 1) x (1 - commission). Commission is charged on the profit, so the effective odds fall to 1 + (odds - 1) x (1 - commission) and the break-even rate is one divided by that figure.

Why does this matter?

At odds of 1.90 the break-even rate is 52.6% before commission, which is why a 50% strike rate on even-money-looking prices is a slow loss.

What do I need to enter?

Enter average decimal odds, commission on winnings. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.

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