Work out epss exploit probability instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
EPSS estimates the probability that a vulnerability will be exploited in the wild within 30 days. Because it is a probability rather than a severity, it composes: across a population of vulnerabilities the expected count exploited is the sum of their scores, and the chance that at least one is hit rises quickly with volume even when each individual score is modest.
EPSS aggregation
probability over d days = 1 - (1 - EPSS)^(d/30); expected exploited = count x probability; P(at least one) = 1 - (1 - p)^count
They answer different questions. CVSS says how bad exploitation would be; EPSS says how likely it is. Using both cuts remediation workload dramatically compared with patching everything rated High.
Yes. The distribution is heavily skewed, with the large majority below 0.1, which is why EPSS is such an effective filter for a limited patching budget.