Excess Mortality Calculator

Work out excess mortality instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Excess Mortality Calculator

Subtracts expected from observed deaths and expresses the difference as a P-score, the standard excess mortality indicator.

Formula

Excess mortality

Excess deaths = observed - expected; P-score (%) = excess / expected x 100

Worked example

With the default values below, Excess Mortality Calculator returns Excess deaths of 2,000. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Observed deathsaccepts 0–10,000,000: 12,000
Expected deathsaccepts 1–10,000,000: 10,000
Populationaccepts 1–2,000,000,000: 1,000,000

Results

Excess deaths: 2,000
P-score: 20.00%
Excess deaths per 100,000: 200.00
Observed to expected ratio: 1.2000

Step by step

1Values used
2Excess mortality
3Excess deaths= 2,000
4P-score= 20.00
5Excess deaths per 100,000= 200.00
6Observed to expected ratio= 1.2000

Assumptions and limits

The result is derived only from the 3 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
Figures are rounded for display to 4 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use excess mortality?

It is insensitive to testing and cause-of-death coding, so it captures both direct and indirect effects of a crisis.

Where do expected deaths come from?

A baseline model fitted to previous years, usually allowing for trend, seasonality and population change.