Quantum Security Readiness Calculator
Apply Mosca's theorem to your data retention and migration timeline, and score how exposed you are to harvest-now attacks.
About Quantum Security Readiness Calculator
Mosca's inequality compares the life of your secrets plus the time you need to change algorithms against the arrival of a quantum computer. Because Shor's algorithm breaks RSA, DH and ECC outright — while Grover only halves symmetric strength — the exposure is concentrated in key exchange and signatures. Traffic recorded today can be decrypted the moment Shor becomes practical, so anything with a ten-year confidentiality requirement needs hybrid key exchange in production now, not when the hardware ships.
Formulas
Quantum Security Readiness
Mosca's theorem: if retention time (x) + migration time (y) > time to a quantum computer (z), you are already too late; gap = x + y − z.
- x
- How long the data must remain secret
- y
- How long a full crypto migration takes you
- z
- Years until Shor's algorithm is practical at scale
Migration deadline
latest safe start year = today + (z − y).
Worked example
With the default values below, Quantum Security Readiness Calculator returns Mosca Gap of 3.0. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.
Inputs used
- Years your data must stay confidentialaccepts 0–75 years
- 10 years
- Years needed to migrate your estateaccepts 0–40 years
- 5 years
- Years until a cryptographically relevant quantum computeraccepts 1–60 years
- 12 years
- Estate already using post-quantum or hybrid cryptoaccepts 0–100 %
- 5 %
- Traffic protected only by RSA or ECCaccepts 0–100 %
- 85 %
Results
- Mosca GapPositive means data leaks before you finish migrating.
- 3.0 years
- Readiness Score
- 16 /100
- Rating
- F — Critical
- Latest Year to Start Migration
- 2,033
- Harvest-now Decrypt-later Risk
- Active — traffic captured today is decryptable before you finish migrating
- Assessment
- Exposed by 3 years — begin hybrid key exchange now
Step by step
- 1Values used
- 2Quantum Security Readiness
- 3Migration deadline
- 4Mosca Gap= 3.0 years
- 5Readiness Score= 16 /100
- 6Rating= F — Critical
- 7Latest Year to Start Migration= 2,033
- 8Harvest-now Decrypt-later Risk= Active — traffic captured today is decryptable before you finish migrating
- 9Assessment= Exposed by 3 years — begin hybrid key exchange now
Assumptions and limits
- The result is derived only from the 5 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
- In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
- Figures are rounded for display to 1 decimal place, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.
How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is Quantum Security Readiness calculated?
Mosca's theorem: if retention time (x) + migration time (y) > time to a quantum computer (z), you are already too late; gap = x + y − z. Mosca's inequality compares the life of your secrets plus the time you need to change algorithms against the arrival of a quantum computer. Because Shor's algorithm breaks RSA, DH and ECC outright — while Grover only halves symmetric strength — the exposure is concentrated in key exchange and signatures.
Why does Quantum Security Readiness matter?
Traffic recorded today can be decrypted the moment Shor becomes practical, so anything with a ten-year confidentiality requirement needs hybrid key exchange in production now, not when the hardware ships.
What values do I need to enter?
This calculator takes 5 inputs: Years your data must stay confidential, Years needed to migrate your estate, Years until a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Estate already using post-quantum or hybrid crypto, Traffic protected only by RSA or ECC. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.
What should I migrate first?
Key exchange, because captured traffic is the retroactive risk. Hybrid X25519+ML-KEM is already deployed in major browsers and TLS libraries. Signatures can follow later — a forged signature needs the quantum computer to exist at the time of the attack.
Is AES-256 quantum-safe?
Effectively yes. Grover's algorithm reduces it to a 128-bit search, which remains infeasible, and the huge circuit depth involved makes even that speed-up largely theoretical. Symmetric cryptography needs no replacement, only larger keys.
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