Quantum Security Readiness Calculator
Apply Mosca's theorem to your data retention and migration timeline, and score how exposed you are to harvest-now attacks.
Inputs
Mosca Gap
3.0years
Positive means data leaks before you finish migrating.
Readiness Score
16/100
Rating
F — Critical
Latest Year to Start Migration
2,033
Harvest-now Decrypt-later Risk
Active — traffic captured today is decryptable before you finish migrating
Assessment
Exposed by 3 years — begin hybrid key exchange now
Step by step
Values used
Years your data must stay confidential = 10 years; Years needed to migrate your estate = 5 years; Years until a cryptographically relevant quantum computer = 12 years; Estate already using post-quantum or hybrid crypto = 5 %; Traffic protected only by RSA or ECC = 85 %
Quantum Security Readiness
Mosca's theorem: if retention time (x) + migration time (y) > time to a quantum computer (z), you are already too late; gap = x + y − z.
Migration deadline
latest safe start year = today + (z − y).
Mosca Gap
= 3.0 years
Readiness Score
= 16 /100
Rating
= F — Critical
Latest Year to Start Migration
= 2,033
Harvest-now Decrypt-later Risk
= Active — traffic captured today is decryptable before you finish migrating
Assessment
= Exposed by 3 years — begin hybrid key exchange now
How it works
Mosca's inequality compares the life of your secrets plus the time you need to change algorithms against the arrival of a quantum computer. Because Shor's algorithm breaks RSA, DH and ECC outright — while Grover only halves symmetric strength — the exposure is concentrated in key exchange and signatures. Traffic recorded today can be decrypted the moment Shor becomes practical, so anything with a ten-year confidentiality requirement needs hybrid key exchange in production now, not when the hardware ships.
Formulas
Quantum Security Readiness
Mosca's theorem: if retention time (x) + migration time (y) > time to a quantum computer (z), you are already too late; gap = x + y − z.
- x
- How long the data must remain secret
- y
- How long a full crypto migration takes you
- z
- Years until Shor's algorithm is practical at scale
Migration deadline
latest safe start year = today + (z − y).
Frequently Asked Questions
How is Quantum Security Readiness calculated?
Mosca's theorem: if retention time (x) + migration time (y) > time to a quantum computer (z), you are already too late; gap = x + y − z. Mosca's inequality compares the life of your secrets plus the time you need to change algorithms against the arrival of a quantum computer. Because Shor's algorithm breaks RSA, DH and ECC outright — while Grover only halves symmetric strength — the exposure is concentrated in key exchange and signatures.
Why does Quantum Security Readiness matter?
Traffic recorded today can be decrypted the moment Shor becomes practical, so anything with a ten-year confidentiality requirement needs hybrid key exchange in production now, not when the hardware ships.
What values do I need to enter?
This calculator takes 5 inputs: Years your data must stay confidential, Years needed to migrate your estate, Years until a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Estate already using post-quantum or hybrid crypto, Traffic protected only by RSA or ECC. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.
What should I migrate first?
Key exchange, because captured traffic is the retroactive risk. Hybrid X25519+ML-KEM is already deployed in major browsers and TLS libraries. Signatures can follow later — a forged signature needs the quantum computer to exist at the time of the attack.
Is AES-256 quantum-safe?
Effectively yes. Grover's algorithm reduces it to a 128-bit search, which remains infeasible, and the huge circuit depth involved makes even that speed-up largely theoretical. Symmetric cryptography needs no replacement, only larger keys.
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