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Calcrivo

Quantum Security Readiness Calculator

Apply Mosca's theorem to your data retention and migration timeline, and score how exposed you are to harvest-now attacks.

Inputs

years
years
years
%
%

Mosca Gap

3.0years

Positive means data leaks before you finish migrating.

Readiness Score

16/100

Rating

F — Critical

Latest Year to Start Migration

2,033

Harvest-now Decrypt-later Risk

Active — traffic captured today is decryptable before you finish migrating

Assessment

Exposed by 3 years — begin hybrid key exchange now

Step by step

  1. Values used

    Years your data must stay confidential = 10 years; Years needed to migrate your estate = 5 years; Years until a cryptographically relevant quantum computer = 12 years; Estate already using post-quantum or hybrid crypto = 5 %; Traffic protected only by RSA or ECC = 85 %

  2. Quantum Security Readiness

    Mosca's theorem: if retention time (x) + migration time (y) > time to a quantum computer (z), you are already too late; gap = x + y − z.

  3. Migration deadline

    latest safe start year = today + (z − y).

  4. Mosca Gap

    = 3.0 years

  5. Readiness Score

    = 16 /100

  6. Rating

    = F — Critical

  7. Latest Year to Start Migration

    = 2,033

  8. Harvest-now Decrypt-later Risk

    = Active — traffic captured today is decryptable before you finish migrating

  9. Assessment

    = Exposed by 3 years — begin hybrid key exchange now

How it works

Mosca's inequality compares the life of your secrets plus the time you need to change algorithms against the arrival of a quantum computer. Because Shor's algorithm breaks RSA, DH and ECC outright — while Grover only halves symmetric strength — the exposure is concentrated in key exchange and signatures. Traffic recorded today can be decrypted the moment Shor becomes practical, so anything with a ten-year confidentiality requirement needs hybrid key exchange in production now, not when the hardware ships.

Formulas

Quantum Security Readiness

Mosca's theorem: if retention time (x) + migration time (y) > time to a quantum computer (z), you are already too late; gap = x + y − z.

x
How long the data must remain secret
y
How long a full crypto migration takes you
z
Years until Shor's algorithm is practical at scale

Migration deadline

latest safe start year = today + (z − y).

Frequently Asked Questions

How is Quantum Security Readiness calculated?

Mosca's theorem: if retention time (x) + migration time (y) > time to a quantum computer (z), you are already too late; gap = x + y − z. Mosca's inequality compares the life of your secrets plus the time you need to change algorithms against the arrival of a quantum computer. Because Shor's algorithm breaks RSA, DH and ECC outright — while Grover only halves symmetric strength — the exposure is concentrated in key exchange and signatures.

Why does Quantum Security Readiness matter?

Traffic recorded today can be decrypted the moment Shor becomes practical, so anything with a ten-year confidentiality requirement needs hybrid key exchange in production now, not when the hardware ships.

What values do I need to enter?

This calculator takes 5 inputs: Years your data must stay confidential, Years needed to migrate your estate, Years until a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Estate already using post-quantum or hybrid crypto, Traffic protected only by RSA or ECC. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.

What should I migrate first?

Key exchange, because captured traffic is the retroactive risk. Hybrid X25519+ML-KEM is already deployed in major browsers and TLS libraries. Signatures can follow later — a forged signature needs the quantum computer to exist at the time of the attack.

Is AES-256 quantum-safe?

Effectively yes. Grover's algorithm reduces it to a 128-bit search, which remains infeasible, and the huge circuit depth involved makes even that speed-up largely theoretical. Symmetric cryptography needs no replacement, only larger keys.

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