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Raffle Winning Chance Calculator

Work out raffle winning chance instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Raffle Winning Chance Calculator

Draws are made without replacement, so the chance of missing every prize is C(total - your tickets, prizes) / C(total, prizes) and the answer is one minus that. Buying ten of five hundred tickets gives close to a 6% chance across three prizes rather than the 2% a single-draw calculation suggests.

Formulas

Chance of no win

P(none) = C(total - yours, prizes) / C(total, prizes)

Expected wins

expected = prizes x your tickets / total tickets

Worked example

With the default values below, Raffle Winning Chance Calculator returns Chance of winning at least one prize of 5.8924%. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Tickets you holdminimum 1
10
Total tickets soldminimum 1
500
Number of prizesminimum 1
3

Results

Chance of winning at least one prize
5.8924%
Prizes expected
0.0600
Odds are one in
16.97
Chance of winning any single draw
2.0000%

Step by step

  1. 1Values used
  2. 2Chance of no win
  3. 3Expected wins
  4. 4Chance of winning at least one prize= 5.8924
  5. 5Prizes expected= 0.0600
  6. 6Odds are one in= 16.97
  7. 7Chance of winning any single draw= 2.0000

Assumptions and limits

  • The result is derived only from the 3 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
  • In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
  • Figures are rounded for display to 4 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the Raffle Winning Chance figure worked out?

P(none) = C(total - yours, prizes) / C(total, prizes). Draws are made without replacement, so the chance of missing every prize is C(total - your tickets, prizes) / C(total, prizes) and the answer is one minus that.

Why does this matter?

Buying ten of five hundred tickets gives close to a 6% chance across three prizes rather than the 2% a single-draw calculation suggests.

What do I need to enter?

Enter tickets you hold, total tickets sold, number of prizes. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.

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