Track release burndown, scope creep and the projected completion date.
Projecting from observed velocity rather than planned velocity is what makes a burndown predictive. Tracking added scope separately shows whether a slipping date is a delivery problem or a scope problem. Scope creep and slow delivery need opposite responses, and a burndown that hides added scope makes them indistinguishable.
Release Burndown
Projected sprints = elapsed + remaining points ÷ observed velocity
Projected sprints = elapsed + remaining points ÷ observed velocity Projecting from observed velocity rather than planned velocity is what makes a burndown predictive. Tracking added scope separately shows whether a slipping date is a delivery problem or a scope problem.
Scope creep and slow delivery need opposite responses, and a burndown that hides added scope makes them indistinguishable.
This calculator takes 5 inputs: Original scope, Scope added since start, Points completed, Sprints elapsed, Sprints planned. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.