Work out settlement vs trial value instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
Comparing a certain settlement with an uncertain trial means risk-adjusting the trial: the expected award times the probability of success, less trial costs and the value lost to delay. The indifference probability is the number to test with counsel, because everything else follows from it.
Trial expected value
Trial EV = P(win) x Expected award - Trial costs and delay discount
Indifference probability
P* = (Settlement offer + Trial costs) / Expected award
Indicative estimate only. Fees, entitlements, limits and formulas vary by jurisdiction, statute, policy wording and the facts of the case. This is not legal, tax, insurance or financial advice — confirm with a qualified professional or the relevant authority.
Usually yes, and often even slightly below it, because certainty has value and litigation consumes management attention that never appears in the model.
Discount the expected award to present value over the years to judgment, using your cost of capital or the return on the settlement sum.