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AI Supply Chain Risk Calculator

Score AI supply chain risk across model weights, datasets, serialisation formats, dependencies and provider concentration.

About AI Supply Chain Risk Calculator

The distinctive AI supply chain risk is that model weights are executable in practice: a pickle-serialised checkpoint runs arbitrary Python on load, so pulling an unverified fine-tune is equivalent to running an unsigned binary as your inference service. Artefact integrity therefore carries half the weight, dependencies matter because AI frameworks pull enormous trees with native code, and concentration is included as a resilience rather than a compromise risk. Model hubs are package registries with fewer controls, and 'download the latest checkpoint by tag' is the AI equivalent of curl-piping a script into a shell.

Formula

AI Supply Chain Risk

risk = (0.5×artefactIntegrity + 0.3×dependencyRisk + 0.2×providerConcentration) × sbomFactor, where artefactIntegrity averages weight source, verification, serialisation format and dataset provenance.

artefactIntegrity
Trustworthiness of the weights and data you deploy
dependencyRisk
Vulnerable-package share plus a penalty for dependency count
sbomFactor
Up to 20% reduction for complete bill-of-materials coverage

Worked example

With the default values below, AI Supply Chain Risk Calculator returns Supply Chain Risk of Medium. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Source of model weightsone of Trained in-house — 2, Commercial provider under contract — 3, Official repository on a public hub — 6, Community fine-tune or mirror — 9
Official repository on a public hub — 6
Weight integrity verificationone of Signed artefacts verified in the pipeline — 1, Checksums pinned and checked — 4, Downloaded by tag or latest — 7, No verification — 9
Downloaded by tag or latest — 7
Serialisation formatone of Safetensors — 2, ONNX — 4, Pickle or PyTorch .bin — 8, Arbitrary custom loader code — 10
Pickle or PyTorch .bin — 8
Training or fine-tuning dataset provenanceone of Curated first-party, documented — 2, Licensed third-party dataset — 4, Public scrape with filtering — 6, Unvetted public data — 9
Public scrape with filtering — 6
Direct AI framework dependenciesaccepts 1–5,000 packages
45 packages
Dependencies with known vulnerabilitiesaccepts 0–5,000 packages
6 packages
Share of AI capability from one provideraccepts 0–100 %
85 %
Model and software bill of materials coverageaccepts 0–100 %
30 %

Results

Supply Chain Risk
Medium
Risk Score
5.36 / 10
Artefact Integrity Risk
6.75 / 10
Dependency Risk
2.08 / 10
Provider Concentration Risk
8.50 / 10
Load-Time Code Execution
Yes — pickle-based weights execute arbitrary code on load; convert to safetensors
Highest-Value Control
Convert or re-export weights to safetensors and refuse pickle in the pipeline

Step by step

  1. 1Values used
  2. 2AI Supply Chain Risk
  3. 3Supply Chain Risk= Medium
  4. 4Risk Score= 5.36 / 10
  5. 5Artefact Integrity Risk= 6.75 / 10
  6. 6Dependency Risk= 2.08 / 10
  7. 7Provider Concentration Risk= 8.50 / 10
  8. 8Load-Time Code Execution= Yes — pickle-based weights execute arbitrary code on load; convert to safetensors

Assumptions and limits

  • The result is derived only from the 8 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
  • In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
  • Figures are rounded for display to 2 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is AI Supply Chain Risk calculated?

risk = (0.5×artefactIntegrity + 0.3×dependencyRisk + 0.2×providerConcentration) × sbomFactor, where artefactIntegrity averages weight source, verification, serialisation format and dataset provenance. The distinctive AI supply chain risk is that model weights are executable in practice: a pickle-serialised checkpoint runs arbitrary Python on load, so pulling an unverified fine-tune is equivalent to running an unsigned binary as your inference service. Artefact integrity therefore carries half the weight, dependencies matter because AI frameworks pull enormous trees with native code, and concentration is included as a resilience rather than a compromise risk.

Why does AI Supply Chain Risk matter?

Model hubs are package registries with fewer controls, and 'download the latest checkpoint by tag' is the AI equivalent of curl-piping a script into a shell.

What values do I need to enter?

This calculator takes 8 inputs: Source of model weights, Weight integrity verification, Serialisation format, Training or fine-tuning dataset provenance, Direct AI framework dependencies, Dependencies with known vulnerabilities, Share of AI capability from one provider, Model and software bill of materials coverage. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.

Is safetensors genuinely safer?

Yes, for the loading step. It is a tensor container with no code path, so a malicious file cannot execute on load. It does not tell you whether the model itself was poisoned or backdoored — that is a separate evaluation problem.

Why include provider concentration as a security risk?

Because availability is a security property. A single provider outage, policy change or account suspension can remove a capability your product depends on, and having no tested fallback is the same class of failure as an unpatched dependency.

AI Supply Chain Risk Calculator | Calcrivo