Estimate years to a career goal.
Reaching a salary target is a compound growth problem solved for time rather than for value. Two forces combine: the ordinary annual raise, and promotions, whose uplift is annualised across the years between them so a 12 percent jump every four years contributes about 2.9 percent a year. Multiplying the two gives the effective growth rate, and taking logarithms of the salary ratio over that rate gives the years directly. If the target is already met the answer is zero rather than a negative number.
Effective growth
Growth = (1 + annual raise) x (1 + promotion uplift^(1/years between promotions)) - 1
Time to target
Years = ln(target salary / current salary) / ln(1 + effective growth)
Because an external move typically resets pay to the market rate in one step, often 10 to 20 percent, while internal raises are anchored to your current salary. Raising the promotion uplift and shortening the cycle models exactly that.
No — both salaries are in the same nominal terms. If your target is expressed in today's money, subtract expected inflation from the annual raise to get a real-terms answer.