Estimate a promotion timeline.
Promotion timing is driven by three things: time in role against the typical expectation, performance, which compresses or extends that expectation, and whether a position actually exists at the next level. Strong performance shortens the typical tenure by roughly a fifth and weak performance lengthens it by a similar amount, but no amount of readiness produces a promotion when there is no opening — which is why the likelihood band weights both.
Promotion timing with performance and opportunity
Performance factor = 1.6 - rating x 0.2; adjusted tenure = typical months x factor; months remaining = adjusted - months in role; opportunity = readiness x 0.7 + min(open roles, 5) x 6
It shortens the expected tenure but cannot create a vacancy. In flat or shrinking organisations, high performers frequently wait as long as average ones, which is the single most common reason strong people leave.
At around 60-70 percent readiness, not at 100. Raising it early turns it into a development discussion with a concrete gap to close; raising it at the point you expect the promotion turns it into a request that can simply be declined.
Then the realistic options are a lateral move that positions you for the next opening, or an external move. Waiting for a vacancy that nobody has budgeted is how people lose two or three years.