Calculate the expected value of a bet and its long-run outcome.
A bet is only profitable when your probability estimate exceeds the odds-implied one. The expected value per bet is small even with a real edge, which is why volume matters more than any individual result. Everything depends on the accuracy of the probability estimate; a positive expected value calculated from a wrong estimate is worse than no calculation at all.
Expected Value Betting
Expected value = stake × (probability × net odds − probability of losing)
These figures are estimates based on population-average formulas and are intended for training and recreational planning only. They are not medical advice. Consult a qualified health professional before starting or changing an exercise programme, particularly if you have an existing medical condition.
Expected value = stake × (probability × net odds − probability of losing) A bet is only profitable when your probability estimate exceeds the odds-implied one. The expected value per bet is small even with a real edge, which is why volume matters more than any individual result.
Everything depends on the accuracy of the probability estimate; a positive expected value calculated from a wrong estimate is worse than no calculation at all.
This calculator takes 4 inputs: Your estimated win probability, Decimal odds offered, Stake per bet, Number of similar bets. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.