Expected Value Betting Calculator
Calculate the expected value of a bet and its long-run outcome.
About Expected Value Betting Calculator
A bet is only profitable when your probability estimate exceeds the odds-implied one. The expected value per bet is small even with a real edge, which is why volume matters more than any individual result. Everything depends on the accuracy of the probability estimate; a positive expected value calculated from a wrong estimate is worse than no calculation at all.
Formula
Expected Value Betting
Expected value = stake × (probability × net odds − probability of losing)
- expected value
- Average profit per bet over the long run
- edge
- The gap between your estimated probability and the implied one
Worked example
With the default values below, Expected Value Betting Calculator returns Expected Value per Bet of $4.600. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.
Inputs used
- Your estimated win probabilityaccepts 0–100 %
- 42 %
- Decimal odds offeredaccepts 1.01–1,000
- 2.6
- Stake per betminimum 0
- 50
- Number of similar betsminimum 1
- 200
Results
- Expected Value per Bet
- $4.600
- Expected Value as a Share of Stake
- 9.200%
- Expected Profit Over All Bets
- $920.00
- Probability Implied by the Odds
- 38.462%
- Edge Over the Implied Probability
- 3.539%
Step by step
- 1Values used
- 2Expected Value Betting
- 3Expected Value per Bet= 4.600
- 4Expected Value as a Share of Stake= 9.200
- 5Expected Profit Over All Bets= 920.00
- 6Probability Implied by the Odds= 38.462
- 7Edge Over the Implied Probability= 3.539
Assumptions and limits
- The result is derived only from the 4 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
- In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
- Figures are rounded for display to 3 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.
- These figures are estimates based on population-average formulas and are intended for training and recreational planning only. They are not medical advice. Consult a qualified health professional before starting or changing an exercise programme, particularly if you have an existing medical condition.
- This is an estimate for general information and not professional medical advice. See the full disclaimer for the limits that apply to this kind of calculator.
How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.
These figures are estimates based on population-average formulas and are intended for training and recreational planning only. They are not medical advice. Consult a qualified health professional before starting or changing an exercise programme, particularly if you have an existing medical condition.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is Expected Value Betting calculated?
Expected value = stake × (probability × net odds − probability of losing) A bet is only profitable when your probability estimate exceeds the odds-implied one. The expected value per bet is small even with a real edge, which is why volume matters more than any individual result.
Why does Expected Value Betting matter?
Everything depends on the accuracy of the probability estimate; a positive expected value calculated from a wrong estimate is worse than no calculation at all.
What values do I need to enter?
This calculator takes 4 inputs: Your estimated win probability, Decimal odds offered, Stake per bet, Number of similar bets. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.