Work out expected value of a bet instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
Expected value is the chance of winning times the profit, minus the chance of losing times the stake, so a positive figure means the price is generous relative to your estimate. Expected value is per bet, not per outcome, so a positive EV bet still loses most of the time at long odds, and only volume realises the edge.
Expected value
EV = p x stake x (odds - 1) - (1 - p) x stake
Edge
edge = your probability - 1 / decimal odds
EV = p x stake x (odds - 1) - (1 - p) x stake. Expected value is the chance of winning times the profit, minus the chance of losing times the stake, so a positive figure means the price is generous relative to your estimate.
Expected value is per bet, not per outcome, so a positive EV bet still loses most of the time at long odds, and only volume realises the edge.
Enter stake, decimal odds, your estimated chance of winning. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.