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Expected Value Of A Bet Calculator

Work out expected value of a bet instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Expected Value Of A Bet Calculator

Expected value is the chance of winning times the profit, minus the chance of losing times the stake, so a positive figure means the price is generous relative to your estimate. Expected value is per bet, not per outcome, so a positive EV bet still loses most of the time at long odds, and only volume realises the edge.

Formulas

Expected value

EV = p x stake x (odds - 1) - (1 - p) x stake

Edge

edge = your probability - 1 / decimal odds

Worked example

With the default values below, Expected Value Of A Bet Calculator returns Expected value per bet of $2.000. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Stakeminimum 0.01
10
Decimal oddsminimum 1
3
Your estimated chance of winningaccepts 0.1–99.9 %
40 %

Results

Expected value per bet
$2.000
Expected value as a share of stake
20.000%
Break-even probability at this price
33.333%
Probability edge over the price
6.667%

Step by step

  1. 1Values used
  2. 2Expected value
  3. 3Edge
  4. 4Expected value per bet= 2.000
  5. 5Expected value as a share of stake= 20.000
  6. 6Break-even probability at this price= 33.333
  7. 7Probability edge over the price= 6.667

Assumptions and limits

  • The result is derived only from the 3 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
  • In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
  • Figures are rounded for display to 3 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the Expected Value Of A Bet figure worked out?

EV = p x stake x (odds - 1) - (1 - p) x stake. Expected value is the chance of winning times the profit, minus the chance of losing times the stake, so a positive figure means the price is generous relative to your estimate.

Why does this matter?

Expected value is per bet, not per outcome, so a positive EV bet still loses most of the time at long odds, and only volume realises the edge.

What do I need to enter?

Enter stake, decimal odds, your estimated chance of winning. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.

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