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Expected Goals Estimate Calculator

Work out expected goals estimate instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Expected Goals Estimate Calculator

Expected goals is shots multiplied by average chance quality, and treating goals as Poisson with that mean gives the chance of scoring at least once as 1 - e to the minus xG. Overperformance against xG regresses hard over a season, which is why a striker two goals above expectation is more likely to cool off than to keep going.

Formulas

Expected goals

xG = shots x average expected goals per shot

Poisson scoring chance

P(at least one goal) = 1 - e^(-xG)

Worked example

With the default values below, Expected Goals Estimate Calculator returns Expected goals of 1.540. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Shots takenminimum 1
14
Average chance quality per shotaccepts 0.001–1
0.11
Goals actually scoredaccepts 0–100
2

Results

Expected goals
1.540
Chance of scoring at least once
78.56%
Goals above or below expectation
0.460
Chance of exactly that many goals
25.42%

Step by step

  1. 1Values used
  2. 2Expected goals
  3. 3Poisson scoring chance
  4. 4Expected goals= 1.540
  5. 5Chance of scoring at least once= 78.56
  6. 6Goals above or below expectation= 0.460
  7. 7Chance of exactly that many goals= 25.42

Assumptions and limits

  • The result is derived only from the 3 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
  • In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
  • Figures are rounded for display to 3 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the Expected Goals Estimate figure worked out?

xG = shots x average expected goals per shot. Expected goals is shots multiplied by average chance quality, and treating goals as Poisson with that mean gives the chance of scoring at least once as 1 - e to the minus xG.

Why does this matter?

Overperformance against xG regresses hard over a season, which is why a striker two goals above expectation is more likely to cool off than to keep going.

What do I need to enter?

Enter shots taken, average chance quality per shot, goals actually scored. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.

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