Work out expected goals estimate instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
Expected goals is shots multiplied by average chance quality, and treating goals as Poisson with that mean gives the chance of scoring at least once as 1 - e to the minus xG. Overperformance against xG regresses hard over a season, which is why a striker two goals above expectation is more likely to cool off than to keep going.
Expected goals
xG = shots x average expected goals per shot
Poisson scoring chance
P(at least one goal) = 1 - e^(-xG)
xG = shots x average expected goals per shot. Expected goals is shots multiplied by average chance quality, and treating goals as Poisson with that mean gives the chance of scoring at least once as 1 - e to the minus xG.
Overperformance against xG regresses hard over a season, which is why a striker two goals above expectation is more likely to cool off than to keep going.
Enter shots taken, average chance quality per shot, goals actually scored. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.