Work out fantasy points projection instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
Projected points are games actually expected times the per-game average; the range uses the standard deviation of a sum, which grows with the square root of games played. Because variance grows with the square root while the total grows linearly, longer horizons are proportionally more predictable, which is why late-season projections tighten.
Projection
projected = games remaining x (1 - miss chance) x average points
Range
range = projected plus or minus 1.28 x average x variability x sqrt(games)
projected = games remaining x (1 - miss chance) x average points. Projected points are games actually expected times the per-game average; the range uses the standard deviation of a sum, which grows with the square root of games played.
Because variance grows with the square root while the total grows linearly, longer horizons are proportionally more predictable, which is why late-season projections tighten.
Enter games remaining, average points per game, game to game variability, chance of missing any given game. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.