Learning Curve Estimate Calculator

Work out learning curve estimate instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Learning Curve Estimate Calculator

A learning curve with an 85% rate means unit time falls to 85% each time cumulative output doubles, so the exponent is log(0.85)/log(2) = -0.234. Starting at 60 minutes, the sixteenth unit takes 31.3 minutes - a 48% reduction after four doublings. Manufacturing rates typically fall between 80% and 95%.

Formulas

Unit time

T(n) = T(1) x n^b, with b = log(rate) / log(2)

Cumulative time

approximately T(1) x n^(b+1) / (b + 1)

Worked example

With the default values below, Learning Curve Estimate Calculator returns Time For That Unit of 31.32. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Time for the first unitminimum 0 min: 60 min
Learning rateaccepts 50–100 %: 85 %
Unit number to estimateminimum 1: 16

Results

Time For That Unit: 31.32 min
Reduction Against The First Unit: 47.80%
Approximate Cumulative Time: 654.6 min
Learning Exponent: -0.2345

Step by step

1Values used
2Unit time
3Cumulative time
4Time For That Unit= 31.32 min
5Reduction Against The First Unit= 47.80
6Approximate Cumulative Time= 654.6 min
7Learning Exponent= -0.2345

Assumptions and limits

The result is derived only from the 3 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
Figures are rounded for display to 4 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

What learning rate is realistic?

About 80-85% for labour-intensive assembly, 90-95% for machine-paced work where the operator has less influence.

Does the curve continue indefinitely?

No. It flattens as the process approaches physical limits, so extrapolating many doublings ahead overstates the gains.