Smoking Prevalence Impact Calculator

Work out smoking prevalence impact instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Smoking Prevalence Impact Calculator

Applies Levin's population attributable fraction to smoking prevalence and relative risk, then converts it into attributable and avoidable deaths.

Formula

Attributable deaths

PAF = p(RR - 1) / (1 + p(RR - 1)); attributable deaths = PAF x annual deaths

Worked example

With the default values below, Smoking Prevalence Impact Calculator returns Smoking-attributable fraction of 20.886%. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Smoking prevalenceaccepts 0.1–80: 22
Relative risk of death in smokersaccepts 1–20: 2.2
Annual deaths from the relevant causesaccepts 1–10,000,000: 8,000

Results

Smoking-attributable fraction: 20.886%
Deaths attributable to smoking: 1,670.9
Deaths if prevalence were halved: 7,164.6
Deaths avoidable if smoking ended: 1,670.9

Step by step

1Values used
2Attributable deaths
3Smoking-attributable fraction= 20.886
4Deaths attributable to smoking= 1,670.9
5Deaths if prevalence were halved= 7,164.6
6Deaths avoidable if smoking ended= 1,670.9

Assumptions and limits

The result is derived only from the 3 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax or fees or charges into account.
Figures are rounded for display to 3 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does halving prevalence not halve deaths?

Risk persists for years after quitting and former smokers remain at raised risk, so benefits accrue over decades.

Which relative risk should be used?

Cause-specific values: around 15 to 25 for lung cancer but nearer 2 for all-cause mortality.