Obesity Prevalence Projection Calculator

Work out obesity prevalence projection instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Obesity Prevalence Projection Calculator

Projects obesity prevalence forward with a linear annual increase in percentage points and converts it into case numbers.

Formula

Linear prevalence projection

Projected prevalence = current prevalence + annual increase in percentage points x years, bounded between 0 and 100%

Worked example

With the default values below, Obesity Prevalence Projection Calculator returns Projected prevalence of 33.00%. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Current prevalenceaccepts 0.5–80: 28
Annual increaseaccepts -2–3 percentage points: 0.5 percentage points
Projection horizonaccepts 1–40: 10
Adult populationaccepts 1–2,000,000,000: 1,000,000

Results

Projected prevalence: 33.00%
Projected cases: 330,000
Additional cases: 50,000
Relative increase: 17.86%

Step by step

1Values used
2Linear prevalence projection
3Projected prevalence= 33.00
4Projected cases= 330,000
5Additional cases= 50,000
6Relative increase= 17.86

Assumptions and limits

The result is derived only from the 4 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax or fees or charges into account.
Figures are rounded for display to 2 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why linear rather than exponential?

Observed obesity trends have been close to linear in percentage points over recent decades, and a bounded projection avoids exceeding 100%.

What could change the trend?

Population-level dietary policy, GLP-1 receptor agonist availability and cohort effects all break simple extrapolation.