Project subscriber numbers with compound growth and churn, and see when the forecast crosses your platform's capacity.
Growth and churn act on the same base each period, so the net rate compounds rather than adding linearly. Inverting the compound-growth formula with logarithms gives the number of periods before the base reaches a stated capacity ceiling; a non-positive net rate is reported as effectively never. Core and RAN upgrades take quarters to deliver, so knowing the crossover period — not just the end-state number — is what makes the capital plan land on time.
Subscriber Growth Forecast
subscribers = base × (1 + net rate)^periods, where net rate = gross growth − churn.
Capacity crossover
periods to capacity = ln(capacity ÷ base) ÷ ln(1 + net rate).
subscribers = base × (1 + net rate)^periods, where net rate = gross growth − churn. Growth and churn act on the same base each period, so the net rate compounds rather than adding linearly. Inverting the compound-growth formula with logarithms gives the number of periods before the base reaches a stated capacity ceiling; a non-positive net rate is reported as effectively never.
Core and RAN upgrades take quarters to deliver, so knowing the crossover period — not just the end-state number — is what makes the capital plan land on time.
This calculator takes 5 inputs: Subscribers today, Gross growth rate per period, Churn rate per period, Periods to project, Platform capacity. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.