Subscriber Growth Forecast Calculator
Project subscriber numbers with compound growth and churn, and see when the forecast crosses your platform's capacity.
Inputs
Subscribers at End of Forecast
1,613,867
Net Growth per Period
2.50%
Net Additions Over the Forecast
413,867
Periods Until Capacity Is Reached
20.7
Capacity Utilisation at End of Forecast
80.7%
Step by step
Values used
Subscribers today = 1,200,000 subscribers; Gross growth rate per period = 4 %; Churn rate per period = 1.50 %; Periods to project = 12 periods; Platform capacity = 2,000,000 subscribers
Subscriber Growth Forecast
subscribers = base × (1 + net rate)^periods, where net rate = gross growth − churn.
Capacity crossover
periods to capacity = ln(capacity ÷ base) ÷ ln(1 + net rate).
Subscribers at End of Forecast
= 1,613,867
Net Growth per Period
= 2.50
Net Additions Over the Forecast
= 413,867
Periods Until Capacity Is Reached
= 20.7
Capacity Utilisation at End of Forecast
= 80.7
How it works
Growth and churn act on the same base each period, so the net rate compounds rather than adding linearly. Inverting the compound-growth formula with logarithms gives the number of periods before the base reaches a stated capacity ceiling; a non-positive net rate is reported as effectively never. Core and RAN upgrades take quarters to deliver, so knowing the crossover period — not just the end-state number — is what makes the capital plan land on time.
Formulas
Subscriber Growth Forecast
subscribers = base × (1 + net rate)^periods, where net rate = gross growth − churn.
- net rate
- Growth left after churn, per period
- periods
- Number of compounding periods projected
Capacity crossover
periods to capacity = ln(capacity ÷ base) ÷ ln(1 + net rate).
Frequently Asked Questions
How is Subscriber Growth Forecast calculated?
subscribers = base × (1 + net rate)^periods, where net rate = gross growth − churn. Growth and churn act on the same base each period, so the net rate compounds rather than adding linearly. Inverting the compound-growth formula with logarithms gives the number of periods before the base reaches a stated capacity ceiling; a non-positive net rate is reported as effectively never.
Why does Subscriber Growth Forecast matter?
Core and RAN upgrades take quarters to deliver, so knowing the crossover period — not just the end-state number — is what makes the capital plan land on time.
What values do I need to enter?
This calculator takes 5 inputs: Subscribers today, Gross growth rate per period, Churn rate per period, Periods to project, Platform capacity. The pre-filled defaults are a realistic starting point — replace them with figures from your own environment for a result you can act on.