Tennis Match Odds Calculator

Work out tennis match odds instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Tennis Match Odds Calculator

Assuming sets are independent with a constant win probability, the match chance is the binomial sum of winning the required number of sets first. The best-of-five format magnifies small edges: a 60% set favourite wins 68% of best-of-three matches but 74% of best-of-five.

Formulas

Best of three

P(match) = p^2 x (1 + 2 x (1 - p))

Best of five

P(match) = p^3 x (1 + 3(1 - p) + 6(1 - p)^2)

Worked example

With the default values below, Tennis Match Odds Calculator returns Chance of winning the match of 64.80%. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Chance of winning any one setaccepts 1–99 %: 60 %
Match formatone of Best of 3 sets, Best of 5 sets: Best of 3 sets

Results

Chance of winning the match: 64.80%
Chance of a straight sets win: 36.00%
Chance of winning in a deciding set: 28.80%
Fair decimal odds: 1.543

Step by step

1Values used
2Best of three
3Best of five
4Chance of winning the match= 64.80
5Chance of a straight sets win= 36.00
6Chance of winning in a deciding set= 28.80
7Fair decimal odds= 1.543

Assumptions and limits

The result is derived only from the 2 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
Figures are rounded for display to 3 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the Tennis Match Odds figure worked out?

P(match) = p^2 x (1 + 2 x (1 - p)). Assuming sets are independent with a constant win probability, the match chance is the binomial sum of winning the required number of sets first.

Why does this matter?

The best-of-five format magnifies small edges: a 60% set favourite wins 68% of best-of-three matches but 74% of best-of-five.

What do I need to enter?

Enter chance of winning any one set, match format. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.