Work out tennis match odds instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
Assuming sets are independent with a constant win probability, the match chance is the binomial sum of winning the required number of sets first. The best-of-five format magnifies small edges: a 60% set favourite wins 68% of best-of-three matches but 74% of best-of-five.
Best of three
P(match) = p^2 x (1 + 2 x (1 - p))
Best of five
P(match) = p^3 x (1 + 3(1 - p) + 6(1 - p)^2)
P(match) = p^2 x (1 + 2 x (1 - p)). Assuming sets are independent with a constant win probability, the match chance is the binomial sum of winning the required number of sets first.
The best-of-five format magnifies small edges: a 60% set favourite wins 68% of best-of-three matches but 74% of best-of-five.
Enter chance of winning any one set, match format. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.