Cancer Incidence Projection Calculator

Work out cancer incidence projection instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Cancer Incidence Projection Calculator

Compounds population growth and the ageing effect over the projection horizon, the two demographic drivers of rising cancer case numbers.

Formula

Incidence projection

Projected cases = current cases x (1 + population growth)^years x (1 + ageing effect)^years

Worked example

With the default values below, Cancer Incidence Projection Calculator returns Projected annual cases of 6,410. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Current annual casesaccepts 1–10,000,000: 5,000
Annual population growthaccepts -2–5: 1
Annual effect of population ageingaccepts 0–5: 1.5
Projection horizonaccepts 1–40: 10

Results

Projected annual cases: 6,410
Additional annual cases: 1,410
Relative increase: 28.20%
Annualised growth rate: 2.515%

Step by step

1Values used
2Incidence projection
3Projected annual cases= 6,410
4Additional annual cases= 1,410
5Relative increase= 28.20
6Annualised growth rate= 2.515

Assumptions and limits

The result is derived only from the 4 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax or fees or charges into account.
Figures are rounded for display to 3 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why does ageing matter so much?

Cancer incidence rises steeply with age, so an older population produces more cases even at constant age-specific rates.

Does this assume rising risk?

No. It holds age-specific rates constant and attributes growth to demography alone.