Diabetes Burden Projection Calculator

Work out diabetes burden projection instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Diabetes Burden Projection Calculator

Compounds population growth and relative prevalence growth over ten years to project the number of people living with diabetes.

Formula

Burden projection

Future cases = population x (1 + population growth)^10 x prevalence x (1 + prevalence growth)^10

Worked example

With the default values below, Diabetes Burden Projection Calculator returns Projected cases in 10 years of 123,609. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Current populationaccepts 1–2,000,000,000: 1,000,000
Current prevalenceaccepts 0.1–40: 9
Annual population growthaccepts -2–5: 1.2
Annual relative prevalence growthaccepts -3–8: 2

Results

Projected cases in 10 years: 123,609
Current cases: 90,000
Additional cases: 33,609
Projected prevalence: 10.971%

Step by step

1Values used
2Burden projection
3Projected cases in 10 years= 123,609
4Current cases= 90,000
5Additional cases= 33,609
6Projected prevalence= 10.971

Assumptions and limits

The result is derived only from the 4 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax or fees or charges into account.
Figures are rounded for display to 3 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why separate population and prevalence growth?

Demographic growth and ageing raise cases even with flat prevalence, and the two drivers need different policy responses.

Does this capture undiagnosed diabetes?

Only if the prevalence entered is from a survey with blood testing rather than from diagnosis registers.