Estimate spending on loot boxes.
The expected number of boxes for one specific drop is the reciprocal of its rate — a 4% chance means twenty-five boxes on average — capped by any pity mechanic that guarantees a drop after a fixed count. Two things follow that are easy to get wrong. The average is not a guarantee: at a 4% rate there is roughly a 36% chance of seeing nothing in twenty-five boxes, because each opening is independent. And the planned-spend figure is the honest one to look at first, because it is the amount at risk regardless of what the odds do.
Expected loot box cost
Boxes per reward = min(100 / drop rate %, pity count); expected cost = boxes per reward x box price
Statistical estimates only. Loot boxes are randomised paid mechanics that some jurisdictions regulate as gambling, and expected values do not predict individual outcomes. Set a spending limit before you start. If purchasing feels difficult to control, seek support from a problem-gambling service in your country.
No. Openings are independent, so at a 4% rate you have about a 36% chance of no drop in 25 boxes and roughly a 13% chance of none in 50. The average describes a population of players, not your session.
A guaranteed drop after a set number of unsuccessful openings, which caps the worst case. Where one exists, it — not the headline rate — determines the true maximum cost, which is why it is entered here separately.
Several jurisdictions now require disclosure and some platforms mandate it, so published rates are generally accurate where they exist. Where no rate is published, no expected cost can be calculated honestly.