Estimate rank climbs in MOBA games.
Climbing is governed by net points per game, not win rate alone. Each division is a hundred points, so the target distance is straightforward, but progress per game is the win rate times points gained minus the loss rate times points lost. Because losses typically cost close to what wins pay, a win rate near fifty percent produces a net figure close to zero — which is exactly why a fifty-two percent player can grind for weeks and barely move.
Points required
Points needed = divisions to climb x 100 - current league points
Net progress
Net per game = win rate x points per win - loss rate x points per loss; games = points needed / net per game
At twenty points a win and eighteen a loss, a 52 percent win rate nets about two points per game. A single division then takes roughly fifty games, which is why small win-rate gains matter enormously.
Yes. Games that require winning a best-of series at each tier boundary add variance and typically a few extra games per tier that this linear model does not capture.