Work out playoff probability instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
Assuming each remaining game is independent, the chance of getting enough wins is the binomial tail: the sum of C(games, k) p^k (1-p)^(games-k) for every k at or above the wins needed. The binomial tail is far more informative than the average, because a team needing seven wins from ten at 45% each has a real but small chance rather than none.
Wins needed
wins needed = ceiling((target points - current points) / 3)
Binomial tail
P = sum over k >= wins needed of C(n, k) p^k (1 - p)^(n - k)
wins needed = ceiling((target points - current points) / 3). Assuming each remaining game is independent, the chance of getting enough wins is the binomial tail: the sum of C(games, k) p^k (1-p)^(games-k) for every k at or above the wins needed.
The binomial tail is far more informative than the average, because a team needing seven wins from ten at 45% each has a real but small chance rather than none.
Enter points so far, games remaining, points needed to qualify, chance of winning each remaining game. The defaults shown are a realistic worked example — swap in your own figures to get a result you can use.