Single Source Risk Exposure Calculator

Work out single source risk exposure instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Single Source Risk Exposure Calculator

Single-source exposure is the gap between the time needed to qualify an alternative and the inventory cover you hold, valued at the revenue that depends on the supply. That gap in weeks, not the annual spend, is the number that justifies dual sourcing or strategic stock.

Formulas

Exposed weeks

Exposed = Qualification lead time in weeks - Inventory cover weeks

Revenue at risk

Revenue at risk = Annual revenue / 52 x Exposed weeks

Worked example

With the default values below, Single Source Risk Exposure Calculator returns Revenue at risk of $406,116,923.08. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Annual spend with the single source: 96,000,000
Annual revenue dependent on this supply: 640,000,000
Months to qualify an alternative: 9
Inventory cover held: 6

Results

Revenue at risk: $406,116,923.08
Weeks of exposure after inventory cover: 33.0
Inventory cover held: 6.0
Spend at risk over the exposure window: $60,917,538.46

Step by step

1Values used
2Exposed weeks
3Revenue at risk
4Revenue at risk= 406,116,923.08
5Weeks of exposure after inventory cover= 33.0
6Inventory cover held= 6.0
7Spend at risk over the exposure window= 60,917,538.46

Assumptions and limits

The result is derived only from the 4 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, tax or fees or charges into account.
Figures are rounded for display to 2 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is inventory or dual sourcing the better mitigation?

Inventory is faster and cheaper to arrange; dual sourcing is more durable. High-value, long-qualification items usually justify both.

What if qualification takes years?

Then the exposure is structural and needs a strategic response: design change to a more available component, or a formal supply agreement with capacity guarantees.