Work out burndown projection instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
A burndown projection must subtract scope growth from velocity, because work added each sprint offsets work completed. Ignoring scope creep is the single most common reason burndown forecasts prove optimistic, and the net velocity figure makes the effect explicit.
Net velocity
Net velocity = Average velocity - Scope added per sprint
Sprints to completion
Sprints = Remaining points / Net velocity
Then the backlog never burns down. That is a scope management problem, not a delivery problem, and no amount of extra effort fixes it.
Present a range: best case on the highest recent velocity, worst case on the lowest. A single-point date will be wrong.