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Burndown Projection Calculator

Work out burndown projection instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.

About Burndown Projection Calculator

A burndown projection must subtract scope growth from velocity, because work added each sprint offsets work completed. Ignoring scope creep is the single most common reason burndown forecasts prove optimistic, and the net velocity figure makes the effect explicit.

Formulas

Net velocity

Net velocity = Average velocity - Scope added per sprint

Sprints to completion

Sprints = Remaining points / Net velocity

Worked example

With the default values below, Burndown Projection Calculator returns Sprints to completion of 5.17. Change any input above and every figure here is recalculated in your browser.

Inputs used

Remaining story points
186
Average velocity per sprint
42
Scope added per sprint (points)
6
Sprint length
10 days

Results

Sprints to completion
5.17
Calendar days to completion
52
Net velocity after scope creep
36.00
Extra sprints caused by scope creep
0.74

Step by step

  1. 1Values used
  2. 2Net velocity
  3. 3Sprints to completion
  4. 4Sprints to completion= 5.17
  5. 5Calendar days to completion= 52
  6. 6Net velocity after scope creep= 36.00
  7. 7Extra sprints caused by scope creep= 0.74

Assumptions and limits

  • The result is derived only from the 4 inputs listed above. Anything not among them is not part of the calculation.
  • In particular, this calculator does not take inflation, fees or charges or compounding frequency into account.
  • Figures are rounded for display to 2 decimal places, so totals built from several rounded parts can differ slightly from the unrounded arithmetic.

How these calculators are built and tested is described on the Methodology page. If a figure looks wrong, please report it.

Frequently Asked Questions

What if scope growth exceeds velocity?

Then the backlog never burns down. That is a scope management problem, not a delivery problem, and no amount of extra effort fixes it.

Should I use average or worst-case velocity?

Present a range: best case on the highest recent velocity, worst case on the lowest. A single-point date will be wrong.

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