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Estimate to complete is the forecast cost of the work remaining, and the method matters enormously. Assuming performance continues at the current CPI is the pessimistic and usually more accurate approach; assuming recovery to the budgeted rate requires a credible reason for the improvement.
ETC at current CPI
ETC = (Budget at completion - Earned value) / CPI
ETC at budgeted rate
ETC = Budget at completion - Earned value
Estimate at completion
EAC = Actual cost + ETC
Report both and state the assumption. Reporting only the recovery case without justifying it is how cost overruns get discovered late.
Yes — a negative variance at completion is the forecast overrun against the approved budget.