Work out three point estimate instantly with clear inputs, formula shown and shareable results.
Three-point estimating can use a triangular distribution, which weights all three points equally, or a beta distribution, which weights the most likely case four times. Triangular is more conservative when the worst case is far from the mode, so comparing both reveals how much the choice matters.
Triangular mean
Triangular = (Best + Most likely + Worst) / 3
Beta (PERT) mean
Beta = (Best + 4 x Most likely + Worst) / 6
Beta when you have reasonable confidence in the most likely value; triangular when the worst case is a genuine tail risk you do not want to under-weight.
A realistic bad outcome — roughly a 5% chance of being exceeded — not an absolute catastrophe. Including the catastrophe distorts both means.